The Current Scenario And Its Causes Economics Essay

The Current Scenario And Its Causes Economics Essay INTRODUCTION: The current picture of the economic and financial state has caused a huge literature study evaluating its origin and how to respond with the pertinent strategy. Before going in depth let us discuss about general financial crisis [1] ( Charles,P et al 2005) . The situation can be termed as an economic crisis when a financial institution or an asset lose a large part of its value. It takes many factors into account when defining a global recession, but the International Monetary Fund  (IMF) states that general recession can be declared when the worldwide economic growth is 3 percent or less than that [12] (Rogoff,K.2002). FINANCIAL CRISIS- AN OVERVIEW: Financial crisis occurs when there is a sudden drop in market after a steady growth. It can be said that, it is the harbinger for the decline of market. Due to the volatility of the market and economic growth, this becomes the crux of the financial crisis. Stocks and real estate properties will reach the rock bottom after a period of growth. When the investors predict the market and invests in any sector, due to the market instability, the demand of that investment may decrease and their value of the estimation substantially diminishes. This trend follows a period and significantly investors huge investment does not return the expected revenue and this in turn affects their loan payment. They abruptly stop further investments and they begin to sell assets. [2] ( Aiginger,K. 2009) This trend persists in individuals private income too, they also follow the same practice by selling their assets and luxury objects. Over-optimistic companies and such individuals are the main cause for the crisis during the preceding economic growth epoch. They lean to believe that the general market growth will persists forever without any suspension. This optimism makes everyone to borrow colossal quantity of principal and invest them in homes, luxury objects and expansion of their business. Another cause are executives in banking companies tempted to lend out as much money as possible to the borrowers, regardless of the consequences for the bank and the borrowers, because this behavior gives the executives an enormous short term personal gain. When the supply decreased, the demand too got reduced. Hinder all the financial institution which lends out more money to the borrowers who pays back when they are comfortable [7]( carmassi et al, 2009). The government should interfere and has to lay proper regulations to set clear criteria that must be satisfied when the money lending process is done. Employment contrac ts for the bank executives should be forbidden by the bank which rewards them directly for the amount of mortgages they establish. When did it happen? The global financial crisis hit when there is a blooming economic trend persists. It happened in number of occasions, but the Great depression (1930) and the current financial crisis (2007-2010) are the core calamities which collapsed the global economy. [1] ( Charles,P et al 2005) THE CURRENT SCENARIO AND ITS CAUSES: The current financial crisis period started during 2007. It is the worst economic meltdown since the Great depression. The collapse of the US sub-prime mortgage market and the housing boom turnaround had a ripple effect around the world. Some financial goods and tools have become so difficult and abnormal, and things start to disentangle. The trust in the whole system started to fail. The origin of this present state is due to the extravagant lending of money by banks which permitted various groups to buy expensive assets that they could not afford. This was welcomed and encouraged by the politicians and was cleverly sold by the middle men. This created the trigger for the current scenario [9] ( Cooper,G. 2008) .The survival of excessive land use regulation which helped to drive up the prices. Innovations and internationalization are also cause for the regulation failure. Oligopoly structures in the agencies, insufficient regulation followed in the market, neglected cumulative system ic risks are the additional grounds involved in this trigger. Heterogeneity of profits across businesses, novel forms of equity standards, leveraging of banks, the firms and consumers are the factors which caused misinterpretation that the expected returns will be high. Bubbles in currency, oil and food shortages, short-term view on profits, inappropriate accounting rules and analysts reports, shortages of raw materials, energy deficit and unequal income and wealth distribution are the other aggravating factors which influenced the crisis [7]( carmassi et al, 2009). Consequently the demand decreased as the supply increased. This forms the nucleus of the present crisis. EFFECTS: As a result of this, unemployment increases and companies lay-off the employers in order to muddle through this recession, many banks filed bankruptcy and shortage of food supply too had its effects. The Gross domestic product (GDP) of the world declined for the first time since the Great depression of 1930. World economy growth dropped from 5% in 2007 to 3 % in 2008. USA and Europe economies already shrank during 2008 last quarter and those GDP from 2% to 4% [2] ( Aiginger,K. 2009). During the first quarter of 2009 production and orders declined when compared to the previous years. In order to compensate the cutback in the stipulated private sector caused by the crisis, the government passed large fiscal stimulus. During 2008-2009 alone US implemented two stimulus packages, totaling nearly $1 trillion [3] [2] ( Aiginger,K. 2009). The government has also bailed out many organizations due to large financial obligations. About 70% of GDP growth attained in the euro area and 40% of the same in the US due to the financial sector leverage [7]( carmassi et al, 2009). This is the key issues for the prevalent pressure in the European banking system. United States may be precursor of this current scenario, but the fragility persists in the European financial sector caused them badly and exposed to losses from US assets. An additional feature that made Europe more exposed to the crisis situation like the US is asset price bubble [7]( carmassi et al, 2009). Europe experienced the same real estate price bubble. During 2006-2007 house prices are less in US when compared to Europe, this is the key distinction involving the United States and the Europe [7]( carmassi et al, 2009). The banks in United States and Europe had excessive leverage and also the renovated maturity which are mistakenly manipulated by the regulatory system and allowed by the monetary policy. AGE WAVE THEORY: The additional cause for this economic slowdown was given by Ken Dychtwald, Ph.D in his Age wave theory [4] (Dychtwald, Ken, 1989). According to him, the persons who were born during 1947 to 1966 are called as baby boomers. According to the statistics the economic trend suitably followed as the baby boomers grow. Baby care books sales recorded a high during those initial years. Baby foods were consumed more during 1950s. The toy industry sales also reached record growth as the children grows. When they reached the teenage soft drinks sales and movie tickets sales reached the maximum. When the boomers enter the workforce during 1970s there was a record growth of 29%. Mini vans and SUVs dominated the automobile industry during 1980s and 1990s as the baby boomers started to raise their families. During 2007-2009 the workforce growth is just 12% due to the retirement of the baby boomers , and this may also be one of the reasons which kindled the crisis [5] (Dychtwald, Ken et al 2006). FUTURE REMEDIES: In order to tackle future recession, the UK government needs to follow some regulations. The economic policy should support the total demand by increasing the public demand or by providing inducements to encourage private expenditure [2] ( Aiginger,K. 2009). Monetary policy should be reintroduced to increase the money supply which has reduced interest rates. To improve the structure of taxation, fiscal policy is to be followed. It includes national and international stimulus packages. The European model to be followed [2] ( Aiginger,K. 2009), it includes strategic spending i.e., to invest in future technologies, education, research and development and green technology. Government and financiers should try to compress the scam and increase the capital requirements for banks .They also should follow the regulations and it would be compelled to hold sufficient funds to cover their normal operations. In order to reduce the jeopardy, the bank should bear all the risks and also increase their transparency, their accounting ethics are to be modified accordingly and also to be included in the asset definition. It is crucial that the current land rationing policies should wither as soon as possible. Capital requirements are to be set adequately so that it cannot be evaded by the mediators to raise liquidity [8] (Minsky, H. (2008) .The simple way of doing it is to set capital requirements with reference to total assets and no gimmicks allowed. The main cause for the delude information for investors and obstinate incentives are the assets with maximum risk. [6] (Gros, D. (2009). These assets should be scrapped to maintain the economy. The government should provide guarantees by affording small pensions and loans and also it should fight poverty by employment. The youth unemployment problem can be tackled by training and also making informal jobs more professional. By increasing the choices the supply and demand stability can be maintained. These aforementioned strategies are to be followed by the UK government in order to maintain the stability and also to prevent the arrival of the current scenario [10] (Greenspan ,A. 2009). CONCLUSION: Brian Cowen, the former finance minister says that, If I am right, the next financial crisis, when it comes, stands to make the last two years look like a warm up [11]. So the optimism and complacency natures should be discarded and follow the policies and also the remedies as mentioned above to restore the trust and balance in the system.

The History Of International Cybersecurity Politics Essay

The History Of International Cybersecurity Politics Essay The United States, England, and Continental Europe have very different approaches to cybersecurity. The United States and United Kingdom conceive of cyber primarily as a national security problem to be handled by the military- which in turn sees the Internet as a fifth domain of war to be dominated. The rest of the European Union, however, sees cyber threats mostly as an irritant for commerce and individual privacy that should be dealt with by civilian authorities working in combination with private enterprise. Additionally, while the United States can have a single policy, even though its one implemented by many different federal departments, the European Union is made up of twenty-seven nations with their own laws, notions, and philosophical differences over how to approach cyber issues. Finally, there is NATO, where a unified transatlantic cyber vision must be reconciled and arranged in a coherent manner among twenty-eight allies through a cumbersome bureaucratic process. To make sense of these conflicting visions, this essay reviews cyber attacks against NATO members, attempts to outline the challenges of developing a transatlantic vision for cyber policy, and highlights some of the fundamental differences among NATO members. It is helpful to remember that although the Internet is so ensconced in most of our lives that it is hard to envision living without it, the first modern Web browser didnt debut until 1993 and broadband access has only become widespread over the last decade. As a result, senior government and military leaders did not grow up with the Internet and are gradually having to adapt to emerging cyber realities. Franklin Kramer, who worked as assistant secretary of defense under President Bill Clinton, draws a comparison with the Great Fire of London, he notes that it nearly destroyed the city in 1666 because an advance in living conditions- wooden houses for many- was not matched by security measures. There were no firefighting technologies, no firefighting processes, and no resources devoted to fire fighting. This was still true more than two centuries later with the Great Chicago Fire. Despite our slow learning curve, in the modern world, while fire may strike, it is not the city-devourin g scourge that it once was. Through government regulations that established building codes and through volunteer and government-run fire departments, a protective-response was established over the centuries.  [1]   Former Deputy Secretary of Defense William J. Lynn III uses a more aggressive analogy: The first military aircraft was bought, I think, in 1908, somewhere around there. So were in about 1928, he said. Weve kind of seen some à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦ biplanes shoot at each other over France, he added. But we havent really seen kind of what a true cyberconflict is going to look like.  [2]   Currently, European policymakers seem to treat cybersecurity more along fire-prevention lines rather than as biplanes over France. And framing is critical when thinking about cyber issues. As Kramer observes, Ask the wrong question, and you generally will get the wrong answer. And cyber- and what to do about cyber conflict- is an arena where there is generally no agreement on what is the question, certainly no agreement on what are the answers, and evolving so fast that questions are transmuted and affect and change the validity of answers that have been given. He argues that the lack of agreement over the nature of the problem, lack of coherent regulation and authority mechanisms, and conflict between connectivity and security together make cyber a wicked problem not easily susceptible to resolution.  [3]   Lynn manages to frame the issue in military and security terms but fully acknowledges that the reality is quite blurred and that no clear lines exist in this new domain. I mean, clearly if you take down significant portions of our economy we would probably consider that an attack. But an intrusion stealing data, on the other hand, probably isnt an attack. And there are [an] enormous number of steps in between those two.  [4]   Lynn goes on to say, one of the challenges facing Pentagon strategists is deciding at what threshold do you consider something an attackà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦ I think the policy community both inside and outside the government is wrestling with that, and I dont think weve wrestled it to the ground yet. In other words, it is difficult to know whether the house is on fire or biplanes are shooting at each other.  [5]   Correspondingly tricky, defense officials say, is how to pinpoint who is doing the attacking. This raises further complications that are clearly at the heart of the Pentagons mission. At the Council on Foreign Relations Lynn summarized the issue If you dont know who to attribute an attack to, you cant retaliate against that attack, As a result, you cant deter through punishment, you cant deter by retaliating against the attack. He discussed the complexities that make cyberwar so different from, say, nuclear missiles, which of course come with a return address.  [6]   The cyber threat is very much a part of our current reality. Over the last several years several NATO members and partners, including the United States, have been targeted by severe cyber attacks. Estonia What is commonly believed to be the first known case of one state targeting another by cyber-warfare began on April 27, 2007, when a massive denial-of-service attack was launched by Russia against Estonia over a dispute involving a statue. The attack crippled websites of government ministries, political parties, newspapers, banks, and companies.  [7]  The attack was nicknamed Web War One and it caused a resonation within transatlantic national security circles.  [8]   The German newspaper Deutsche Welle wrote that Estonia is particularly vulnerable to cyber attacks because it is one of the most wired countries in the world. Nearly everyone in Estonia conducts banking and other daily activities on line. So when the cyber attack occurred, it nearly shut Estonia down.  [9]  Then-EU Information Society and Media commissioner Viviane Reding called the attacks a wakeup call, commenting that if people do not understand the urgency now, they never will. Her reaction was to incorporate a response into an EU-wide law on identity theft over the Internet.  [10]  Additionally, NATO did establish a Cyber Center of Excellence in Tallinn, which will be discussed later in the essay. Georgia While not a NATO member, Georgia is a NATO partner, and the April 2008 Bucharest Summit declared that it will become a member at some unspecified time in the future, a promise reiterated at the November 2010 Lisbon Summit.  [11]  Weeks before the August 2008 Russian land invasion and air attack, Georgia was subject to an extensive, coordinated cyber attack. American experts estimated that the attacks against Georgias Internet infrastructure began as early as July 20, with coordinated barrages of millions of requests- known as distributed denial of service, or DDOS, attacks- that overloaded and effectively shut down Georgian servers.  [12]  The pressure was intensified during the early days of the war, effectively shutting down critical communications in Georgia. After defacing Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvilis web site and integrating a slideshow portraying Saakashvili as Hitler, coming up with identical images of both Saakashvili and Hitlers public appearances, the site remained under a sustained DDoS attack. Writing as the attacks were under way, security consultant Dancho Danchev believed it smells like a three letter intelligence agencys propaganda arm has managed to somehow supply the creative for the defacement of Georgia Presidents official web site, thereby forgetting a simple rule of engagement in such a conflict- risk forwarding the responsibility of the attack to each and every Russian or Russian supporter that ever attacked Georgian sites using publicly obtainable DDOS attack tools in a coordinated fashion.  [13]  Bill Woodcock, the research director at Packet Clearing House, a California-based nonprofit group that tracks Internet security trends, noted that the attacks represented a landmark: the first use of a cyber a ttack in conjunction with an armed military invasion.  [14]   The nature of cyber attacks is such that, two and a half years later, there is still no definitive answer on who caused the attack. They certainly emanated from Russia, but the precise role of Moscows military and intelligence services remains unclear. Given that the cyber attacks preceded and accompanied conventional military attacks, there appears to be a link to the Russian government. A March 2009 report by Greylogic concluded Russias Foreign Military Intelligence agency (the GRU) and Federal Security Service (the FSB), rather than patriotic hackers, were likely to have played a key role in coordinating and organizing the attacks. They added, The available evidence supports a strong likelihood of GRU/ FSB planning and direction at a high level while relying on Nashi intermediaries and the phenomenon of crowd-sourcing to obfuscate their involvement and implement their strategy.  [15]   United States In a 2010 essay for Foreign Affairs, Lynn revealed that in 2008, the US Department of Defense suffered a significant compromise of its classified military computer networks. It began when an infected flash drive was inserted into a US military laptop at a base in the Middle East. The flash drives malicious computer code, placed there by a foreign intelligence agency, uploaded itself onto a network run by the US Central Command. That code spread undetected on both classified and unclassified systems, establishing what amounted to a digital beachhead, from which data could be transferred to servers under foreign control.  [16]   The upshot is that adversaries have acquired thousands of files from US networks and from the networks of US allies and industry partners, including weapons blueprints, operational plans, and surveillance data.  [17]   Lynn classified this attack as the most significant breach of US military computers ever and stated that it served as an important wake-up call.  [18]  He acknowledged that to that point, we did not think our classified networks could be penetrated.  [19]  The result of this new awareness was Operation Buckshot Yankee, a fourteen-month program that rid US systems of the agent.btz worm and helped lead to a major reorganization of the armed forces information defenses, including the creation of the militarys new Cyber Command.  [20]   United Kingdom In a speech at the 2011 Munich Security Conference, British foreign secretary William Hague revealed that a series of cyber attacks on his country took place the previous year. He noted that in late December a spoofed email purporting to be from the White House was sent to a large number of international recipients who were directed to click on a link that then downloaded a variant of ZEUS. The UK Government was targeted in this attack and a large number of emails bypassed some of our filters.  [21]   Additionally, sometime in 2010 the national security interests of the UK were targeted in a deliberate attack on our defense industry. A malicious file posing as a report on a nuclear Trident missile was sent to a defense contractor by someone masquerading as an employee of another defense contractor. Good protective security meant that the email was detected and blocked, but its purpose was undoubtedly to steal information relating to our most sensitive defense projects.  [22]   Finally, in February 2011, three of my staff were sent an email, apparently from a British colleague outside the FCO, working on their region. The email claimed to be about a forthcoming visit to the region and looked quite innocent. In fact it was from a hostile state intelligence agency and contained computer code embedded in the attached document that would have attacked their machine. Luckily, our systems identified it and stopped it from ever reaching my staff.  [23]  Still, the prevalence and sophistication of these attacks are a principal reason why cybersecurity and cyber-crime were listed as two of the top five priorities in the UKs National Security Strategy.  [24]   Given the interconnectivity of the Internet, Hague argued that more comprehensive international collaboration is vital, noting that, while cyber security is on the agendas of some 30 multilateral organizations, from the UN to the OSCE and the G8, the problem is that much of this debate is fragmented and lacks focus. He continued, We believe there is a need for a more comprehensive, structured dialogue to begin to build consensus among like-minded countries and to lay the basis for agreement on a set of standards on how countries should act in cyberspace.  [25]   US- European Attitudinal Differences We begin to be able to discern a pattern: The United States and the United Kingdom take cyber security very seriously and view it primarily through the lens of national security. The EU and most Western European members of NATO see it primarily as a national infrastructure problem. In the run-up to the November 2010 Lisbon NATO Summit, Pentagon officials were pressing very firmly to incorporate a concept of active cyber defense into the revised NATO Strategic Concept. Lynn argued that the Cold War concepts of shared warning apply in the 21st century to cyber security. Just as our air defenses, our missile defenses have been linked so too do our cyber defenses need to be linked as well. However, this notion was firmly rejected by the Europeans, with the French particularly adamant.  [26]   USCYBERCOM A July 2010 Economist story proclaimed: After land, sea, air and space, warfare has entered the fifth domain: cyberspace.  [27]  It noted that President Obama had declared the digital infrastructure a strategic national asset and had appointed Howard Schmidt, the former head of security at Microsoft, as the first cybersecurity tsar. Peter Coates notes that the air force had actually anticipated this move in December 2005, declaring cyber a fifth domain when it changed its mission statement to To fly and fight in air, space, and cyberspace. In November of the following year, it redesignated the 8th Air Force to become Air Force Cyberspace Command.  [28]   In May 2010 the Defense Department launched a new subunified command, United States Cyber Command, with Gen. Keith Alexander dual-hatted as its chief while continuing on as director of the National Security Agency. CYBERCOM is charged with the responsibility to direct the operations and defense of specified Department of Defense information networks and prepare to, and when directed, conduct full spectrum military cyberspace operations in order to enable actions in all domains, ensure US/ Allied freedom of action in cyberspace and deny the same to our adversaries.  [29]   As the scale of cyberwarfares threat to US national security and the US economy has come into view, the Pentagon has built layered and robust defenses around military networks and inaugurated the new US Cyber Command to integrate cyber-defense operations across the military. The Pentagon is now working with the Department of Homeland Security to protect government networks and critical infrastructure and with the United States closest allies to expand these defenses internationally. An enormous amount of foundational work remains, but the US government has begun putting in place various initiatives to defend the United States in the digital age.  [30]  Even with stepped-up vigilance and resources, Lynn admits, adversaries have acquired thousands of files from US networks and from the networks of US allies and industry partners, including weapons blueprints, operational plans, and surveillance data.  [31]   The cyber policy of the United States is rapidly evolving, with major developments under way even as I write this essay. The White House issued a new International Strategy for Cyberspace in May 2011. While not by any means moving away from a defense-oriented posture- indeed, it generated breathless commentary by declaring the right to meet cyber attacks with a kinetic response- it sought to bring commercial, individual, diplomatic, and other interests into the equation. This was followed by a new Department of Defense cyber strategy in July 2011, which built on Lynns Foreign Affairs essay. European Network and Information Security Agency (ENISA) While CYBERCOM is the most powerful and well-funded US cyber agency, the lead EU cyber agency is ENISA, the European Network and Information Security Agency. Whereas CYBERCOM is run by a general with an intelligence background, ENISA is run by a physics professor with long experience in the IT sector, including the energy industry, insurance company engineering, aviation, defense, and space industry.  [32]  The agencys mission is to develop a culture of Network and Information Security for the benefit of citizens, consumers, business and public sector organizations in the European Union.  [33]   In December 2010 ENISA released a report identifying what it sees as the top security risks and opportunities of smartphone use and gives security advice for businesses, consumers and governments. The agency considers spyware, poor data cleansing when recycling phones, accidental data leakage, and unauthorized premium-rate phone calls and SMSs as the top risks.  [34]  New regulations are proposed that would see the perpetrators of cyber attacks and the producers of related and malicious software prosecuted, and criminal sanctions increased to a maximum two-year sentence. European countries would also be obliged to respond quickly to requests for help when cyber attacks are perpetrated, and new pan-European criminal offences will be created for the illegal interception of information systems. Home affairs Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrà ¶m added that criminalizing the creation and selling of malicious software and improving European police cooperation would help Europe step up our efforts against cybercrime. ENISAs new mandate will let the agency organize pan-European cybersecurity exercises, public- private network resilience partnerships, and risk assessment and awareness campaigns. ENISAs funding will also be boosted, and its management board will get a stronger supervisory role. ENISAs mandate is also to be extended by five years to 2017. The new directive will also supersede a 2005 council framework decision on cybercrime because that previous regulation did not focus sufficiently on evolving threats- in particular, large-scale simultaneous attacks against information systems, such as Stuxnet, and the increasing criminal use of botnets. Stuxnet was recently used to attack Irans nuclear power infrastructure, and a single botnet, Rustock, is estimated to be responsible for two-fifths of the worlds spam.  [35]   Additionally, EU states are constrained by Directive 95/ 46/ EC, better known as the Data Protection Directive, which provides enormous protection for any information relating to an identified or identifiable natural person. Compare this to the USA Patriot Act, which gives enormous leeway to US law enforcement and intelligence agencies to access electronic data held by US companies in order to investigate and deter terrorist activities. In June 2011 Gordon Frazer, managing director of Microsoft UK, set off a firestorm when he declared that European customer data stored on cloud computing services by companies with a US presence cannot be guaranteed the protections afforded under the Data Protection Directive, setting off a demand from some EU lawmakers to resolve this issue.  [36]   Germany In late February 2011 Germanys outgoing minister of the interior, Thomas de Maizià ¨re, unveiled the countrys Nationale Cyber-Sicherheitsstrategie (National Cyber Security Strategy).  [37]  To American eyes, the fact that it was the interior ministry, not the defense ministry, issuing the strategy is striking. It was no accident: this is by no means a defense document. The documents introduction notes that in Germany all players of social and economic life use the possibilities provided by cyberspace. As part of an increasingly interconnected world, the state, critical infrastructures, businesses and citizens in Germany depend on the reliable functioning of information and communication technology and the Internet. Among the threats listed: Malfunctioning IT products and components, the break-down of information infrastructures or serious cyber attacks may have a considerable negative impact on the performance of technology, businesses and the administration and hence on Germanys social lifelines. Contrast this with Lynns analogy of biplanes over France, and his pondering at what threshold do you consider something an attack? German security scholar Thomas Rid laments that the strategy is coming a bit late and that Germanys thinking lags that of the United States and the United Kingdom. Beyond that, he notes that the two agencies created to manage cyber issues are woefully understaffed and tasked with myriad responsibilities related tangentially at best to cyber security. And, according to a cyber kodex established in the new strategy, German interests in data security à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦ would be pursued in international organizations such as the UN, the OSCE, the European Council, the OECD, and NATO- in that order.  [38]   United Kingdom as Outlier As is frequently the case on matters of international security, the United Kingdom is much more in line with its American cousin than its neighbors on the Continent. In an October 12, 2010, speech at Londons International Institute for Strategic Studies, Iain Lobban, director of GCHQ (the UKs National Security Agency analogue, responsible for signals intelligence) noted that his country combines the intelligence and information assurance missions in a single agency, an arrangement shared by only a few other countries, most notably the US. It gives us a richer view of vulnerabilities and threats than those who consider them purely from the point of view of defense.  [39]   He confessed to constant barrages of spam, worms, theft of intellectual property on a massive scale, some of it not just sensitive to the commercial enterprises in question but of national security concern too, and all manner of other attacks that have caused significant disruption to Government systems. Consequently, his government was looking to significantly increase its investment in the cyber realm even at a time when the global recession was forcing significant austerity in other departments, including in more traditional military assets.  [40]   Thomas Rid notes the sheer breadth of Lobbans focus: Cyber encompasses, for instance, more and more online government services (read: steadily increasing vulnerability); critical national infrastructure, publicly or privately run; online crime in all its facets; espionage (both industrial and governmental), and such things as the proper norms of behavior for responsible states.  [41]   The implications are vast, as Lobban hints and Rid explicates: partnerships of a new kind are needed to deal with cyber threats and risks. International partnerships, with like-minded countries that need to establish and maintain appropriate norms of behavior in crisis situations- and intersectoral partnerships, between government agencies and industry, especially the high-tech sector.  [42]   In his Munich Security Conference speech, Hague noted that we rely on computer networks for the water in our taps, the electricity in our kitchens, the sat navs in our cars, the running of trains, the storing of our medical records, the availability of food in our supermarkets and the flow of money into high street cash machines. Further, Many government services are now delivered via the internet, as is education in many classrooms. In the UK, 70 percent of younger internet users bank online and two thirds of all adults shop on the internet.  [43]   Given the new awareness of vulnerabilities and the degree of dependence, then, the United Kingdoms new National Security Strategy ranks cyber attack and cyber crime in our top five highest priority risks. This is not lip service. At the same time that the British military is suffering such severe cutbacks that the Royal Navy is reduced to sharing a single aircraft carrier with France, the current budget provided  £ 650 million of new funding for a national cyber-security program, which will improve our capabilities in cyber-space and pull together government efforts. As part of that effort, Hague said, We have established a new Ministerial Group on cyber security which I chair. And we have boosted the UKs cyber capabilities with the establishment of a new Defense Cyber Operations Group, incorporating cyber security into the mainstream of our defense planning and operation.  [44]   NATO Responses After months of study and debate the 2010 NATO Summit in Lisbon issued a new strategic concept on November 19, 2010. In it, cyber issues were officially recognized for the first time as a core alliance mission. Recognizing that cyber attacks are becoming more frequent, more organized and more costly in the damage that they inflict, NATO pledged to develop further our ability to prevent, detect, defend against and recover from cyber-attacks, including by using the NATO planning process to enhance and coordinate national cyber-defense capabilities, bringing all NATO bodies under centralized cyber protection, and better integrating NATO cyber awareness, warning and response with member nations.  [45]   This was followed in June 2011 by a revised NATO policy on cyber defense and a parallel cyber defense action plan. Combined, they offer a coordinated approach to cyber defense across the Alliance with a focus on preventing cyber threats and building resilience. Additionally, all NATO structures will be brought under centralized protection.  [46]   What practical actions will flow from these policy statements remains unclear, especially in an era of radically declining budgets. But they give an overview of what it terms NATOs principle cyber defense activities.  [47]   Coordinating and Advising on Cyber Defense The cyber-defense policy was implemented by NATOs political, military, and technical

The Lesson of Quinns Ishmael :: Quinn Ishmael Essays

The Lesson of Quinn's Ishmael There are some books that you can just sit back and enjoy, just let the authors words wash over you and, most importantly, you don't have to think. And then there's Daniel Quinn's Ishmael. The novel Ishmael, "an adventure of the mind and spirit," opens with a disillusioned and depressed man in search of a teacher, and not just any teacher. He wants someone to show him what life is all about. And so he finds Ishmael, a meiutic teacher (one who acts as a midwife to his pupils, in bringing ideas to the surface), who turns out to be a large telepathic gorilla of extraordinary intelligence. The largest part of the book consists of their conversations, in which Ishmael discusses how things got to be this way (in terms of human culture, beginning with the agricultural revolution). Ishmael shows the narrator exactly what doesn't work in our society: the reasoning that there is only one right way to live, and that that way is with humans conquering the planet. Daniel Quinn points out that many other cultures, most notably those who have a tribal lifestyle, work, in that they do not destroy their resources, have no need for crime control or other programs, and do not have population problems. He insists that our culture is not based on humans being human, it is based on humans being gods and trying to control the world. Ishmael has a habit of raising questions and ideas. The gorilla Ishmael not only brought out thoughts and questions in the narrator, he brought up a lot of questions and ideas in Coast to Coast 2000. Ishmael took us all aback. Although many of us questioned some of Daniel Quinn's minor points, we all agreed on one of his main points: that there is no one right way to live. The Bushmen of Africa are living in a way that is just as right and works just as well as ours, and possibly even better, as they are capable of living without destroying everything in their paths. These "Leaver" cultures are in no way inferior to ours though we consider them to be uncivilized. In fact, Ishmael says that it is "Taker" civilization itself, the hierarchical structure that locks up food and spreads through the idea that people must live the same way, that is actually inferior.

Our Schools Need Community Service Learning Programs Essay -- Communit

"I don't know what your destiny will be, but one thing I do know: the only ones among you who will be really happy are those who have sought and found how to serve." - Albert Schweitzer Each community is like a human body, it requires a constant life force to survive. Volunteers and community service workers are the blood that maintains our communities. It fortifies our foundations. A community is only as strong as the weakest link. We must empower those weakened by poverty, discrimination and other social injustices. Compassion is a learned behavior. We obtain it through our parents initially teaching us morals such as empathy, kindness, and fairness. Secondly, we can reinforce it through school-based service learning projects. Mandatory school-based community service learning will benefit our country by an increase in volunteerism from the heart and social skills in our children and teens in the future.Service is your engagement in the relationship of the act of giving. Service is its most sincere when we help through whom we are not by what we do. We have to have compassion in order to serve correctly to be in the situation with someone not just for them (Wade, Rahima C., 1997). Volunteerism is embedded in the fibers of Americans. For centuries we have aided our society in all aspects of volunteerism. Harvard University, in 1636, formed the first academic library which was staffed with volunteers. In 1736, the first Volunteer Fire Department was established; in 1857 the American Red Cross was organized using volunteer labor(Megan 2011). As volunteers, will we promote charity or solidarity? Charity exhibits as insincere, superior, and often views the poor as sub-human. Solidarity presents ... ...g-Youth O’Sullivan, Theresa A., Community Service in The United States, Alternatives to improve volunteerism among Americans, Tallahassee, FL August 2004 Vessels, G., & Huitt, W. (2005). Moral and character development. Paper presented at the National Youth at Risk Conference, Savannah, GA, March 8-10. Retrieved [date], from http://www.edpsycinteractive.org/papers/chardev.pdf http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harris_Wofford Wade, Rahima C. "From a Distance: Service- Learning and Social Justice." Integrating Service Learning and Multicultural Education in Colleges and Universities . Ed. Carolyn R. O'Grady. Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum, 2000. Youth helping America educating for active citizenship: service learning, school-based service and youth engagement 3/2006 Publisher: Corporation for National and Community Service. http://www.nationalservice.gov/

Prediction of Stock Market Indices

Prediction of Stock Market Indices-Using SAS Author—B. Siddhartha Reddy Abstract— The SAS © System has a powerful suite of tools for analyzing and forecasting data taken over a selected time period. The paper concentrates more on Stock Market (NSE-Nifty, India) & its prediction, by and large a risky venture. Knowledgeable investors base their predictions either on the basis of Fundamental Analysis, or Technical Analysis, or both. But most of the investors rely on the tips given by the experts for Stock Market Predictions.However there are many such models available such as Interrupted Time Series, Auto Regression (AR), Exponential Smoothening, Moving Average (MA), and Distributed Lags Analysis. The procedures FORECAST, ARIMA process will be illustrated. analysis, traditional time series analysis and machine learning methods. The analyzing and predicting of the indices is in one line-To reap returns while investing on the index derivatives, Index derivatives provide in vestors the exposure to price movements of entire indices through a single futures or options contract.Using index options, a very interesting kind of â€Å"portfolio insurance† can be obtained, whereby an investor gets paid only if the market index drops. If one does not want to bear index fluctuations in the coming weeks, then the index futures or index options can be used to reduce (or even eliminate) the consequent index exposure. This is far more convenient than distress selling of the underlying equity in the portfolio. Thus, such prediction of indices would help the investor to play safe in the dynamic volatile market arena. Analyzing What?Analyzing the indices as in NIFTY MIDCAP 50, one can determine various trends the market has seen on day-to-day basis-the process which includes determining the trends underneath the data series (at a stretch of 13 years from 19972010) brought down from various secondary sources. Moreover, these trends can be used to identify the pat terns in the series and thus laying the foundation for forecasting adopting a couple of iterative processes which will be explained in the following sections. Details of the data: Observations-3282, Type-Daily Tools used: SAS © and Eviews. II.DATA FEATURES AND EXAMPLE The first step in time series analysis, or any good statistical analysis for that matter, is to plot the data. However, unless the user knows what to look for in the plots this exercise is futile. Features of interest usually include: Trend – an overall long term upward or downward movement in the data. Do we handle this by differencing the data or fitting a low order polynomial in time? Seasonality – a component of the series repeats periodically, for example, retail sales have a tendency to be high around November and December and lower near the first of the year.Do we look at seasonal differences or put in seasonal â€Å"indicator variables†? Keywords— forecasting, prediction, stock mar ket prediction Time series analysis. I. INTRODUCTION Stock market is the market for securities where organized issuance and trading of Stocks takes place either through exchanges or over-the-counter in electronic or physical form. It plays an important role in channelizing capital from the investors to the business houses, which consequently leads to the availability of funds for business expansion.Determination of stock price considers that market is supreme and it discounts everything (economical, political and all related factors). It presumes that all the investors behave rationally and the value of the asset is estimated based on future expectations. Hence, with every new information, the future expectation of the market is liable to change and consequently the stock prices. As the new information is erratic in nature so it influences the price in a random way. The purpose of this trend analysis is to enable the organizations/individuals improve their knack of trading their ind ex options/futures in the available markets (NSE, BSE).The SAS technology helps the organization/individual to speed up the process of investing in this second’s market (changing over a period of seconds) and timely reducing the loss at all the levels in a trading process thus leveraging their portfolios. Why Analyze? Stock Market Investments are subjected to market risks and the returns are variable in nature because it is an uncertain existence. Hence Stock Market Prediction is not a guaranteed one. It is based on certain analyses linked to the Macro & Micro economic factors or variables such as demand & supply.There are certain other analyses available such as fundamental Siddhartha Reddy. B is with IBS Bangalore, Karnataka, INDIA. Ph: 91+9886768492,e-mail:Siddhartha. [email  protected] com Page | 1 Variability – is the variation additive or multiplicative (in which case we might want to analyze the logarithms of the data). Special events – was there a stri ke sometime during the period? Does the time period include the dotcom bubble and the recession in 2008? Is there an effect of the same or some other impingements?The features of the data determine which procedures are appropriate and identify those that are not appropriate. There are statistical checks available in the system for deciding, for example, the best approach for modeling the trend. As an example, Fig 1 shows the change in the Index values of NIFTY MIDCAP 50 in INDIA. While not exactly steady, we can see an overall increase/decrease in market with time. If we are thinking in terms of polynomials, it seems that at least a cubic polynomial might be needed to approximate the curvature in the historic data plot.The flexibility of high degree polynomials allows them to fit historic data well, but becomes a liability in forecasting in that such polynomials can, by their inherent flexibility, produce unreasonable increases or decreases as they are projected out into the future. Having checked with the seasonality and stationary test of the data, the logarithmic value of the data CLOSE (closing point of NIFTY) is taken and rechecked for the stationary test. If the data is a stationary, then the data is ready to model into a time series. The stationarity tests are done by using the Time Series Analysis in SAS, preferably The Fullers Test. Fig. Log Transformed Flows (Data Series: Obs – 3282 Type – Daily) The accuracy of the above forecast shown in fig 2 can be viewed in the fig 3 which shows the difference of the actual values and the predicted values of the market by considering the entire data of 13years at once and later on the same difference in case of the splitted graph. Fig 3 shows the statistics of differences in forecasting of the data: the graph (trend) with split and without split. Fig. 3 Differencing of Forecasted Data with Split & Without Split Thus, from Fig 3 it is evident that the data series has to be split as per the trends an d seasonality available.Having inspected the trends available in the above data series, it is found that there are various trends in the market index (closing) and had resulted in the 10 splits. The entire project has been verified while considering each and every split that shows some or the other trend and/or the impact of global impacts such as the Dotcom bubble and followed by the Recession in the year of 2008. The above impingements referring the dotcom bubble and recession are clearly observed globally and their impacts on the Indian Market are analyzed and assessed.It can be inferred that though Indian markets have shown a slight drift in its market during the above impacts, the overall effect of the recession on India is far negligible compared to the other developed countries (in reference to the BPO sector: India at its best) and we can say India along with other Pan-Asia countries have stood back from such wallops. III. RELATED WORK The Time Series Prediction analyzes his toric data and attempts to approximate future values of a time series as a linear combination of these historic data.In econometrics there are two basic types of time series forecasting: univariate (simple regression) and multivariate (multivariate regression). These types of regression models are the most common tools used in econometrics to predict time series. The way they are applied in practice is that firstly a set of factors that influence Fig. 2 Log Transformed Forecast Siddhartha Reddy. B is with IBS Bangalore, Karnataka, INDIA. Ph: 91+9886768492,e-mail:Siddhartha. [email  protected] com Page | 2 (or more specific is assumed that influence) the series under prediction is identified.These factors are the explanatory variables xi of the prediction model. Methodology: The methodology includes ? Collecting the Secondary data from the market sources such as National Stock Exchange (Nifty). ? Checking the seasonality in the data series (if any) and minimizing the same for an ac curate prediction. ? Claiming the data series to be precise – i. e. checking whether the data series obtained is stationary and raising the steps to make it a stationary series. Having checked with the stationarity, the data would be crisp and apparently ready to fetch a good forecast. Subjecting the resultant series into various models such as AR, MA etc. ? Forecasting the index and plotting the change in behavior of the market indices which is a real time analysis. This will help analysts/investors to make good and accurate investment decisions. Limitations: ? Access to the market’s real time data would be time variant and a slight change in the market may change the trend. ? Time series forecasting heavily depends upon the availability of the data. Long time series give the flexibility of verifying alternative models and choose the best. Exact modeling needs lots of experience and trend identification will be heavily depend upon this experience. ? Though the study g ives a trend analysis it might not work in a uniform way for all the investors, therefore the behavior of the investor also plays a vital role in the modeling. ? The resultant analysis may work only for a specific period and may always subject to change depend on other externalities which will impact the economy of the country. ? Limited time may or may not fetch good results in implementation of the analysis since share market cannot be cracked in the real time. Fig. Forecasting System The Model Building and The Forecasting Process IV. PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS The Performance analysis is been considered for the 10th split of the above data series since the entire paper concentrates on the Real-Time analysis of the NIFTY market, while comparing the predicted values with that of the Real-Time Index values and the same difference of Prediction is shown in the below Excel table. Fig 5 shows the graph (LCLOSE) for a time period of July 09 – Feb 10 and is not stationary. It can be det ermined by just viewing its trend and moreover the data is not moving in and out of the MEAN at equal intervals.However, the series clearly shows the trend with a non-stationary series. Such a trend does require a differencing while fitting into the model. Fig. 5 Log Transformed Close Values (LCLOSE) Siddhartha Reddy. B is with IBS Bangalore, Karnataka, INDIA. Ph: 91+9886768492,e-mail:Siddhartha. [email  protected] com Page | 3 The stationary series (ref fig 5) is best fitted into the AR Model (Auto Regressive Model) and is fitted for eight lags. Fig 5 shows AR (8, 1) since the parameter estimates show that: The probability is 0. 221 which says that the series (LCLOSE) is more significant at lag 8 and the coefficient of the standard error is almost zero (0. 0839) as obtained during the evaluation of the above model leading to the best fit than any other model. Fig 6 shows the statistics of fit of LCLOSE graph with RSquare as 0. 961 which says that the series is been fitted into th e model with the 96. 1% of confidence with the adjusted R-Square of 0. 958 (almost same) and with the mean absolute error being almost zero thus leading to the best fit. Fig. 6 Statistics of Fit Fig. 8 Predictions and Data OverlaidThe predictions of LCLOSE in fig 8 are listed for the next 6 days: 7. 8190 to 7. 8274 are the forecasted values of the NIFTY closing for the dates above 24th of Feb 2010 that is for the real time of the future. These values are checked with the real time closing values of the NIFTY MIDCAP 50 on the following days. Fig 9 shows the predicted values and real time values of the same. Fig. 9 Predicted Vs Real Time Values The reason for this best fit of almost 96. 1% is due to the upward trend with the elevation of the data series which could make the prediction more accurate as it is a stationary.Fig. 7 96. 1% Confidence Interval Forecast (LCLOSE) From fig 9 it is evident that the predicted value of the NIFTY MIDCAP 50 as 7. 8190 and can be arrived at 2487. 416 (anti-log of Predicted) which has just 4. 2167 points of difference with the real time i. e. 2483. 20 which is a secondary data downloaded from the NSE site. The real time values for the rest of the periods are written manually and the difference is checked accordingly. V. FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS ? The above forecasts of the time series models clearly show the behavior pattern of the market (NIFTY MIDCAP 50) in the near future.One may or may not find a difference in the values of predicted to that of the real time. Fig 7 is obtained on this day of 24th Mar 2010 (the updated data) and the values of the above forecasted graph are fed into the excel sheet to calculate the anti-log of the same in order to come up with the predicted values for the NIFTY closing. ? There is always a possibility of certain standard errors in case of the time series analysis which may be found due to the absence of the best fit models than which are fitted above. Siddhartha Reddy. B is with IBS Bangalore, Karnataka, INDIA.Ph: 91+9886768492,e-mail:Siddhartha. [email  protected] com Page | 4 ? Such and such above models namely AR do have some limitations which would result in an inaccurate prediction since these predicted values may sometimes have a huge difference with that of the real time values caused due to the external factors. These external factors can be: 1. 2. Policies implemented by the GOVERNMENT OF INDIA. Variation in the rates such as ? Interest Rates. ? Fluctuations of Indian Rupee with the impact of other currencies. ? Foreign Exchange Rates etc. Unforeseen issues such as : ?A sudden decline in the foreign markets. ? A variation in the chain of demand and supply. ? Sudden attack by the outlaws. 3. ACKNOWLEDGMENT I would like to take this opportunity to thank Prof. Prashobhan Palakkeel and Prof. Veena Bhat (faculties, IBS Bangalore) for their assistance in the concepts of Business Intelligence and statistical tools used in this research namely SAS 9. 1 & Eviews 6. 0; their ceaseless support has resulted in such a vulnerable & successful explore. This research paper would not been possible without the untiring support provided by my family and friends.The input and guidance provided by other faculties have been invaluable. I would like to extent my gratitude to all these people. REFERENCES [1] www. nse-india. com (NSE National Stock Exchange, India) as a secondary data source for Nifty daily. [2] http://www. statsoft. com/textbook/time-series-analysis/ [3] http:/webspace. qmul. ac. uk/dsgpollock/public_html/courses /tseries/1trends. pdf [4] www. nse-india. com/content/fo/fo_NIFTYMIDCAP50. htm [5] Brocklebank, J. C. and D. A. Dickey (2003) SAS for Forecasting Time Series, SAS Institute, Cary, N.C. [6] http://nseguide. com/press-releases/nse-index-weightsbased-on-nse-daily-bhav-copy/ [7] http://www. hkbu. edu. hk/~billhung/econ3600/application/a pp03/app03. html [8] http://webspace. qmul. ac. uk/dsgpollock/public_html/course s/tseries/8idntify. pdf [9] http://www. duke. edu/~rnau/411arim. htm â€Å"Model Selection is seldom Precise in Time Series modeling, because it’s An Art more Than a Science† Siddhartha Reddy. B is with IBS Bangalore, Karnataka, INDIA. Ph: 91+9886768492,e-mail:Siddhartha. [email  protected] com Page | 5

Iphone and Ipad Innovation

Assessment 1: Case Study Report The Success of the iPod and iPhone raises the licensing question for Apple†¦ again. 1. Use the Cyclic Innovation Model figure to illustrate process in this case and provide a brief description? Innovation refers to the successful implementation and introduction of new products and services to the market. The Cyclic Innovation Model specifically focuses on the innovation processes, looking at the detail and providing a broad perspective. The Cyclic innovation modern does not coincide with the linear-chain concept; rather represents the circle with four ‘Nodes of Change’.These are: * Scientific research * Technological development * Product creation * Market transition (Berkhout & Rietdijk, 2010) There are also the ‘Cycles of Change’ which inspire, correct and supplement. In order for the organisation to communicate and connect with various organisations, markets, business and appeal to other disciplines (Berkhout, Hartmann & Trott, 2010); these processes will need to be managed efficiently and effectively by a sole figure who establishes and distributes these cycles.Apple addressed the consumer’s needs and wants by introducing a smart MP3 player that subjugated competitor products for years. The IPod is a clear example on how an organisation can correctly execute the Cyclic Innovation Model. The IPod introduction and implementation can be broken down into the various steps and nodes. Initially, the ‘Scientific Research Node’ collects information from market variations and lifestyles variations. With the introduction of my IPod, the social change was that everyone began to want one, therefore the demand increased and also corresponded with the music industry.The ‘Product Creation Node’ allows them to establish and maintain the product to suit the needs and wants of consumer, considering the changes over time meaning it will be required to upgrade with the improving soc ial recognition of the market. The improvements of the market leads to the ‘Technological Development Node’ which recognizes and meets required improvements in the product; and then incorporate it with the existing product to allow consumers to easily adopt and absorb.The ‘Market Transition Node’ is the final products introduction to the market. The introduction of the product is essential; leading to value increasing as well as demand increasing. 2. With sales if iPod falling and Apple facing fierce competition from all quarters such as Sony, Dell, Samsung and other electronics firms as well as mobile phone makers who are incorporating MP3 players in their devices, can the iPod survive? Success| Failure|Portability of music is essential in current lifestyles| Preference of an all-in-one product (Phone, internet, mp3)| Increase iTunes usage and sales| High value for just a single product| Target adolescents who are not able to spend too much on a smart phon e| Synchronisation requirements| Decreasing interest on CD-Rom| iTunes compatibility| Opposing the iPod is the newly introduced iPhone. Many consumers will easily pay the added difference to purchase the mobile device that has an internal iPod.This product has enabled Apple to fight off competitors who have looked at possible beating the organisation to creating such a product. Even so, there is still a large portion of the market who have daily needs that are suited by the iPod. Examples can include people who use it while at the gym or going for a run; retail stores, cafes and restaurants that have background music playing and do not want to occupy their phones, and parents who do not want to spend significantly on an iPhone.The biggest challenge for Apple would be the maintaining of interest in the iPod. Correct marketing; advertisement and promotion of the product will attract consumers who believe that it would be a product to match their needs. 3. How can Apple influence futur e technology developments or establish strategic alliances to ensure it is a dominant force in the hand-held devices that will incorporate both the cellphone and MP3? Apple has created each and every one of their products to integrate with all of their other products to a certain degree.This coexistence has allowed many consumers to only purchase Apple products so that they are all working together. For example, iMac computers, iTunes, iPhones, iPods and iPads all synchronize together to allow a consumer to have certain information and date on all devices. To have this working, Apple have also created a principal to make each product user friendly, thus creating such interest that the brand has become one of the most popular household products in the world. Apple is simplifying modern day technology through user-friendly interfaces.The cooperation with the music industry must also continue to excel iTunes and have it prevailing across all of their products, as it is. Reference List 1. Berkout, G & Rietdijk J, 2010, ‘Cyclic innovation model: circular vision in open innovation’ viewed 18 March 2013 ‘apportal. dedicated. nines/Cyclic-innovation-model. pdf’ 2. Berkout G, Hartmann D & Trott P 2010, ‘Connecting technological capabilities with market needs using a cyclic innovation model’, R&D Management, vol. 40, no. 5, pp. 474-488. Turn-It-In Paper title: Assessment 1 Paper ID: 314036265

Beloved Duncan Murdered Essay

The flow of blood stopped and History recorded a tragic death. King Duncan over the past ten years has proved to be the most trusted noble. He is a good and Godly man, friend to the poor and defender of the downtrodden, but unfortunately he is no more with the people of Scotland. On the grim evening of November 10th, the great King Duncan of Scotland was murdered in his chamber. According to the porter, King Duncan was paying a visit to the castle of his Thane, Lord Macbeth, during the time of his death. The porter further mentioned that Lord Macbeth had arranged a grand feast for the king and his sons during their visit to Macbeth’s castle in celebration of Macbeth’s new titles. After the feast, drunken guests resided to their correct chamber and no disturbances were recorded throughout the night until the following morning when the King was found lying dead in his bed with multiple stab wounds to the chest. The main suspects of this unexpected murder include the King’s two sons as well as his guards. The guards were found the next morning with the murder weapons, along with blood smeared all up and down their body. However, Duncan’s sons fled the scene and are also suspected for the murder of their father. In an interview with Lord Macbeth he stated, early in the morning, two noblemen, Macduff and Lennox were called to the castle to visit King Duncan, but when they entered their king’s chamber they exclaimed â€Å"o horror, horror, horror!† Macbeth also stated, â€Å"before the investigators could examine the scene, the chamberlains were killed as a punishment for committing this gruesome deed.† Macbeth was very upset throughout the duration of the interview. He expressed his distress and great loss by showing his love and affection for the King and said he will do everything in his power to find the killer and punish him. An interview with two Scottish nobleman was also held follow the murder of King Duncan. During his interview, Lennox commented on what a terrible  night it had been. He said the wind had blown chimneys down and described how it howled so terribly, but unfortunately refrained from further questioning about the murder to uphold the family’s wishes for privacy. Macduff however agreed to answer more questions. Macduff stated during his interview, â€Å"It is speculated that the king’s sons had bribed the guards to kill Duncan because the crown passes to the nearest eligible kin.† After hearing the news of their father’s murder, King Duncan’s son’s, Malcolm and Donalbain, fearing their lives, fled Scotland. It appears to the people of Scotland that the son’s hasty departure makes them prime suspects of the crime. King Duncan’s body was removed from Macbeth’s chamber in order for burial preparations. The King’s remains will be buried in the king’s burial grounds in Scotland. Once news of the murder was released to the public, the people of Scotland began mourning for their beloved king and immediately began focusing all efforts on uncovering who committed this foul deed. Unfortunately, this tragic murder remains unsolved. Investigations will continue until this mystery is solved. Townspeople are encouraged to come forward with any and all information that may lead to solving of this crime.